Wednesday, May 21, 2008

A friend of mine asked me:

i just found out my womb is the breeding grounds for twins. isn't that freaky?! can you tell me the likelihood that i'll bear twins? it's on both sides of my family... my biodad was a twin!!
TWINS CREEP ME OUT. help me..... you're good at math and stuff. helppppp meeeeeeee. is there any way to figure out my chances?

Eloquently put.

I conducted an hour or so of fruitful research and was able to craft the following response:

First off, some statistics:
11 in 1000 births in the US are fraternal twins
3.5 in 1000 births in the US are identical twins
.02 in 1000 births in the US are conjoined twins (let’s not worry about this)

Now, identical twins are completely random so you’re stuck with a 0.35% chance of those. It’s the 1.1% chance of fraternal twins we’ll worry about.

Are the twins in your family fraternal? Fraternal twins may be the result of a gene that predisposes you to hyperovulation (releasing more than one egg when ovulating). If the twins in your family are fraternal there is a chance that it is the result of just such a gene (though I’m not actually sure how common that gene is or the proportion of twins that are ascribable to it).

Assuming for the moment the twins in your family were the result of the hyperovulation gene, that there is a single gene involved, that the gene is uncommon in the general population, and that the gene is dominant (I don’t know any of these things) then you’d have a ~25% likelihood of inheriting the hyperovulation gene from your dad.

On your mom’s side are do you have grandparent twins, aunt/uncle/mom twins, or cousin twins?

Grandparents: Odds are ~12.5%, overall with dad ~34.375%
Aunt/uncle/mom: Odds are ~25%, overall with dad ~43.75%
Cousins: Odds are ~12.5%, overall with dad ~34.375%

Of course having the hyperovulation gene doesn’t guarantee twins, it just makes it more than 1.1% likely (I’d guess >5%, based on the 4x rise in probability conditional on already having had a set of twins, but that’s a very rough figure).

Since the gene doesn't by any means guarantee you'll have twins, you should pay attention to all the other factors:

Don't gain a lot of weight unless you plan on growing taller. Having a BMI over 30 significantly increases your chances of having fraternal twins.

Don't age. Or, at least have the kids before you're old. By the time you're 45 you have a 17% chance popping out twins.

Stay away from dairy. And Cassava (a type of Yam in West Africa). But seriously, vegans who stay away from dairy are five times less likely to have twins

Apparently the more kids you have, the more likely you are to have them the next time around. So stop having babies at some point in your life. Also, once you’ve had (fraternal) twins the odds quadruple since you’ve shown a propensity for twins.

Don't take fertility drugs. I know this might be a tough habit to break, but I have faith in you.

Don't have babies when you shouldn't be able to. People who conceive while on birth control (the 0.1% exception to the rule) or while lactating (also a form of birth control) have more twins. So, you know, don’t do that. (Also, apparently the first month after discontinuing the drugs though I don’t have any numbers on it).

Well it turns out identical twins are the terrible scourge she feared, and she faces the same 0.35% the rest of us do.

These figures are only valid for European-Americans by the way; the statistics varied by race and location.

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Friday, December 21, 2007

I've decided to do a pseudo-travel blog while I’m in Vietnam through Facebook notes. If you have any interest in keeping up with my travels then be sure to check in occasionally. Of course in creating this I’m being completely hypocritical – I almost never read peoples’ travel blogs, even when well written. I, on the other hand, favor formal, run on, dry sentences when writing that make for absolutely shitty reading. I even cringed when typing ‘shitty’, despite the fact I’d use it when talking to just about anyone. Academic writing has ruined me.

Well I’m here in Ho Chi Minh City (or Saigon, as it’s still referred to by a decent chunk of the population), the financial capital of Vietnam and former capital of South Vietnam. I spent most of the morning wandering downtown, dodging thousands of motorbikes and seeing what there was to see. It was pretty much what I had expected; crowded, hot, with a mixture of old and new buildings and plenty of street vendors. The market was cool, but I was saved from spending any time/money there by a smell that could only be ascribed to Satan himself (if Satan worked with assorted and not particularly fresh sea food). Unfortunately the downtown could mostly be covered in one morning, and there isn’t much architecturally to speak of – this isn’t a Rome or an Istanbul.

The most interesting thing I saw was the war museum which was, as my sister put it, surprisingly uncensored though unsurprisingly biased. Well that isn’t actually what she said. She said she was surprised at how unedited it was. I then helpfully pointed out that it was in fact incredibly biased and meant to portray the VC as victims and underdogs. She then made the excellent point that she clearly hadn’t meant it was unbiased, but just that the pictures were fairly graphic, and that I, as an intelligent individual, should have clearly perceived these facts. Furthermore, she helpfully suggested that as I am just as everything I say is contrary rather than helpful, the conversation would be improved should I shut my mouth (by lifting the lower jaw upwards) and refrain from speaking in the future. I’m glad that my sister and I are so close.

Anyways, though the museum was clearly intended to portray the VC as triumphing over a superior force in a ‘war of aggression’, it didn’t demonize America – rather it highlighted the strength of the US troops (which were, of course, ultimately defeated), the US protests and anti-war reporters. The crazy part was where it showed the victims of the phosphorus, napalm and agent-orange attacks. They didn’t pull any punches; there were plenty of extreme photos, weapons and articles. However I’ve been to the holocaust museum – really, this is no big deal in comparison, right? Wrong. What the holocaust museum lacks, you see, are two dead babies. Two dead babies you say? That’s right, two dead, deformed babies, preserved in jars so that you can witness first hand the effects of agent-orange. Well, I suppose there were three dead babies – two were joined at the head and occupied just one jar. But let's not argue semantics; if I’ve learned one thing today it’s that agent-orange is bad because it causes poor, dead babies with birth defects to be displayed in jars.

That disturbing vignette aside, I think I’m going to get some reading done and try to stay up (without taking an afternoon nap) for as long as possible. We’re 12 hours ahead here and my bio-clock is pissed. Mind you, that’s as much from my insomnia during exam period and the 21 hours I spent in airports and planes on the way over here as it is from Toronto/Durham time (which I’m most decidedly not on).

Perhaps once I start biking every day it will fall into step with the normal 24 hour cycle the rest of the human race subscribes too. And I have decided to do the biking despite the torn cartilage in my knee – apparently there’s a good chance they’ll “fix” it by just ‘scraping it out’. Raise your hand if this seems to you like the opposite of fixing it – I’ll just have to squeeze all the use out of it that I can before it’s gone. I should also write a letter to the medical community. Like many of our generation, I’m counting on medical science fixing all of my problems before I can get old enough to have them (I’m looking at you pre-meds). Since my body has apparently decided to fall apart well ahead of schedule, I’m afraid they’ll need to move up the time table on miraculous medical discoveries.

Anyways, I’ve written enough – if any of you have born with me through to this point I commend/pity you (Orwell is my hero and doublethink my medium). I’m going to go back to The Glass Castle which is both excellent and a little sad (very reminiscent of Angela’s Ashes, though not quite as tragic). I’ve already read 1.5 books since leaving Toronto yesterday despite watching three movies and several TV shows on the plane rides over here (for fear of running out of books to read on the trip). Don’t worry though – I brought something like six to eight more. (I’m not exactly sure how many – I bought two more in the airport when I saw a bookstore and immediately convinced myself I’d run out soon without extras. I’m half expecting an intervention when I get home.) Have a Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays!

p.s. There are Christmas decorations everywhere here! Apparently everyone celebrates it despite being 80% Mahayana Buddhists. Have you ever seen a thin Vietnamese man in a Santa costume with a strap on white beard?

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Friday, February 24, 2006

I woke up this morning sans one arm. We've all had the experience of sleeping on a limb and having it numb in the morning. I suppose that's what happened but this was more intense than any blood deprivation experience I'd ever had. From just below the shoulder down I had no feeling and no movement, it was just a lump of foreign flesh hanging at my side. I did what I could to restore blood flow, but it was a good few minutes before I experienced that initial tingle that announces its return.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005

[This was written while under the influence of morphine, percocet and sleep deprivation. Needless to say, this is not my best writing]

Friday 21st:

I collect DVD’s, Web Comics, Books, and … Hernias? I’d like you all to give a big hand to Hernia #2! I’m going to call him Frank. Don’t you all go worrying about me though, I’m still having a fantastic few weeks and I wouldn’t have enjoyed tonight nearly so much had Frank never shown up.

For those or you who don’t know a hernia is a weakening and eventual hole in the tissue surrounding the intestines that the intestines then attempt to escape through. The escaping intestines can be anywhere from an inch to a foot in length and causes pain around the big squishy bump that is the displaced organ. Eventually the hole has to be repaired surgically because it won’t heal on its own. Until then one must simply try and push the intestines back in through the hole by pressing and massaging the squishy (extremely painful even when on morphine) bump. When you leave the hospital you won’t have doctors or morphine around to do the job for you and so it’s my job to literally push my intestines back into me if they start to fall out.

I wish I was making this stuff up.

But honestly, as I’ve said before I’ve had a good couple of weeks, a great few days and an enjoyable night. Sure the pain wasn’t much fun but I was lucky enough to run into Meredith, who proved to be a great friend and volunteered to take me before we knew it was serious. I got to see my mom and sister and had fun chatting with them both in the hospital and after words in their hotel room (they were coming in for the weekend and drove straight to the emergency room from the airport). The staff was nice, and it was a unique interesting experience – what more could I ask for? I think I’m actually a little excited to go into surgery (sorry Frank) just for the experience.

I used to say, “I’m not a pessimist, I’m a realist.”
What was up with that?

(Pain killers may in fact have an adverse affect on writing, further testing will be pursued!)

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